王亚玄,胡馨悦

• 1:安徽大学经济学院
• 2:南开大学经济与社会发展研究院

摘要(Abstract)：

在制造业转型升级与全球供应链格局重塑交织的背景下，如何通过优化资本配置以增强供应链韧性，成为关乎产业安全与高质量可持续发展的核心议题。本文以21世纪中国制造业大规模标准化生产方式为现实基础，构建包含资本流动、组织形态的机制传导维度与价值分配、劳资互动的调节维度分析框架，利用中国制造业微观企业数据，系统检验了资本有机构成对供应链韧性的非线性影响及其作用机制。研究发现，资本有机构成与供应链韧性之间存在显著的倒U形关系，这一结论清晰揭示了资本有机构成变动过程中“生产力促进”与“生产关系制约”二重效应的转换边界。异质性分析表明，倒U形关系在国有企业、科创板企业及大规模企业中并不明显。本文的研究结论表明，我国制造业供应链韧性建设需警惕过度资本化引发的结构性矛盾，着眼于资本配置效率、劳动关系协调与制度环境支持的协同推进，在动荡的全球环境中探索出一条稳健、安全、可持续的产业发展路径。本研究不仅为中国情境下资本与韧性关系的理论探讨提供了实证依据，也为政策制定与企业实践提供了关于“如何优化资本配置结构”的决策参考。

关键词(KeyWords)： 资本有机构成;供应链韧性;倒U形关系;制造业

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国经济增长核算的马克思主义政治经济学阐释研究”(25BKS158);; 安徽省社会科学创新发展研究课题“安徽省‘基金丛林’赋能区域产业升级的路径与对策研究”(2025CX505)的资助

作者(Author): 王亚玄,胡馨悦

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• (1)数据来源:国家统计局。 (2)数据来源:产业在线,民生证券研究院。 (3)试点企业数据来自《商务部等8部门关于开展供应链创新与应用试点的通知》(商建函[2018]142号)。 (4)上市公司年度不加班天数采用夜间灯光双重基准法识别测算。采用NASA发布的500米分辨率VNP46A2日度夜间灯光数据,剔除由云层、极端事件造成的异常值及观测不足样本,通过地理编码获取上市公司地址经纬度,用ArcGIS提取上市公司所在网格及周边8个网格的夜间灯光亮度值,分别以法定节假日灯光亮度中位数为时间基准,以周边网格灯光亮度中位数为空间基准,当日亮度同时超出两项基准时判定为超时加班,其余日期记为不加班日,最终按年度汇总得到各上市公司的年度不加班天数。