巴塞尔协议Ⅲ监管约束下的银行信用创造Bank Credit Creation Under Basel Ⅲ Regulations
罗玉辉,李伯尧
摘要(Abstract):
全面加强金融监管是我国当前金融工作和改革的重点,银行监管下的信贷和货币供给是银行监管研究中的基本问题。本文采用银行信用创造理论探讨此问题,该理论认为银行提供贷款时创造信贷和货币,存款供给不再是信贷供给的主要限制,银行监管成为信贷和货币创造能力的关键约束因素。本文分析了资本充足率、杠杆率、流动性覆盖率和净稳定资金比率的约束效应,并进一步讨论监管下资本金冲击(信贷违约)或准备金冲击(存款转移)对信贷和货币供给能力的影响。研究发现,冲击引起银行扩张或收缩资产负债表导致信贷和货币供给能力上升或下降,信贷和货币供给能力变化与冲击强度之间存在乘数关系,不同监管对应不同乘数形式。研究结果展示了监管与信贷和货币供给之间的联系,并为政策干预提供思路。
关键词(KeyWords): 银行;资产负债表;信用创造;巴塞尔协议Ⅲ;乘数
基金项目(Foundation): 国家社科基金青年项目“货币创造视角下中国影子银行的宏观效应及政策调控影响研究”(项目号:21CJY005)的资助
作者(Author): 罗玉辉,李伯尧
参考文献(References):
- 代军勋,马理,黄宪.2009.资本约束下的银行贷款行为和规模——基于资本特质性的分析[J].经济评论,(6):40-46.DAI J X,MA L,HUANG X.2009.Predicting the term structure of treasury interest rate based on nelson-siegel model[J].Economic Review,(6):40-46.(in Chinese)
- 黄宪,马理,代军勋.2005.资本充足率监管下银行信贷风险偏好与选择分析[J].金融研究,(7):95-103.HUANG X,MA L,DAI J X.2005.Risk preference and banks' lending under the new capital adequacy supervision[J].Journal of Financial Research,(7):95-103.(in Chinese)
- 贾根良,何增平.2020a.现代货币理论大辩论的主要问题与深层次根源[J].中国人民大学学报,34(5):66-78.JIA G L,HE Z P.2020a.Main issues and roots of the debate on modern money theory[J].Journal of the Renmin University of China,34(5):66-78.(in Chinese)
- 贾根良,何增平.2020b.货币演进的历史观与货币创造的政治经济学[J].浙江工商大学学报,(6):95-107.JIA G L,HE Z P.2020b.Historical view of money evolution and political economics of money creation[J].Journal of Zhejiang Gongshang University,(6):95-107.(in Chinese)
- 蒋海,王倩颖,张小林.2022.流动性监管对商业银行风险承担的影响——基于中国银行业监管改革的断点回归分析[J].国际金融研究,(4):46-56.JIANG H,WANG Q Y,ZHANG X L.2022.The impact of liquidity regulation on bank risk-taking—A regression discontinuity design based on the reform of China's banking regulatory[J].Studies of International Finance,(4):46-56.(in Chinese)
- 李扬,周莉萍.2014.信用创造[J].金融评论,6(1):1-12.LI Y,ZHOU L P.2014.Credit Creation[J].Chinese Review of Financial Studies,6(1):1-12.(in Chinese)
- 刘琦,熊启跃.2019.流动性覆盖率的监管机理、影响及优化[J].国际金融研究,(11):66-76.LIU Q,XIONG Q Y.2019.Mechanism,influence and optimization of regulation on liquidity coverage ratio[J].Studies of International Finance,(11):66-76.(in Chinese)
- 马国旺.2006.后凯恩斯信用货币理论述评[J].当代经济研究,(2):21-26.MA G W.2006.Review on post-keynesian economics of credit money[J].Contemporary Economic Research,(2):21-26.(in Chinese)
- 马理,黄宪,代军勋.2013.银行资本约束下的货币政策传导机制研究[J].金融研究,(5):47-59.MA L,HUANG X,DAI J X.2013.Monetary transmission mechanism affected by bank capital requirements[J].Journal of Financial Research,(5):47-59.(in Chinese)
- 伍戈,李斌.2012.货币创造渠道的变化与货币政策的应对[J].国际金融研究,(10):4-10.WU G,LI B.2012.The channels of money creation and monetary policy response in China[J].Studies of International Finance,(10):4-10.(in Chinese)
- 熊启跃,张文婧.2021.巴塞尔Ⅲ资本监管影响机制研究——基于国际大型银行资本充足率变动的视角[J].国际金融研究,(2):43-54.XIONG Q Y,ZHANG W J.2021.A study on the impacts of Basel Ⅲ capital requirements—Evidence from capital ratio changes of global major banks[J].Studies of International Finance,(2):43-54.(in Chinese)
- 曾刚,李广子,谢玮.2011.资本充足率变动对银行信贷行为的影响[J].金融评论,3(4):18-27.ZENG G,LI G Z,XIE W.2011.Effect of change in bank's capital adequacy ratio on loan growth[J].Chinese Review of Financial Studies,3(4):18-27.(in Chinese)
- 张成思,尹学钰,刘泽豪.2021.信用货币创造机制的历史演进逻辑[J].国际金融研究,(7):3-12.ZHANG C S,YIN X Y,LIU Z H.2021.The historical evolution logic of credit money creation mechanism[J].Studies of International Finance,(7):3-12.(in Chinese)
- 张晓晶,刘磊.2019.现代货币理论及其批评——兼论主流与非主流经济学的融合与发展[J].经济学动态,(7):94-108.ZHANG X J,LIU L.2019.Modern money theory and its critics—On the integration and development of mainstream and alternative economics[J].Economic Perspectives,(7):94-108.(in Chinese)
- 朱太辉.2013.货币供给的内外生争论迷局[J].金融评论,5(5):12-25.ZHU T H.2013.On the controversy between the endogenous and exogenous view of money supply[J].Chinese Review of Financial Studies,5(5):12-25.(in Chinese)
- BALASUBRAMANYAN L,VANHOOSE D D.2013.Bank balance sheet dynamics under a regulatory liquidity-coverage-ratio constraint[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,37:53-67.
- BENES J,KUMHOF M.2012.The Chicago plan revisited[R].Working Papers,DOI:10.5089/9781475505528.001.
- BEZEMER D J.2011.The credit crisis and recession as a paradigm test[J].Journal of Economic Issues,45(1):1-18.
- BEZEMER D J.2016.Towards an ‘accounting view’ on money,banking and the macroeconomy:History,empirics,theory[J].Cambridge Journal of Economics,40(5):1275-1295.
- BORIO C.2019.On money,debt,trust and central banking[J].Cato J,39:267.
- BORIO C,ZHU H B.2012.Capital regulation,risk-taking and monetary policy:A missing link in the transmission mechanism?[J].Journal of Financial Stability,8(4):236-251.
- DE NICOLò G,GAMBA A,LUCCHETTA M.2014.Microprudential regulation in a dynamic model of banking[J].The Review of Financial Studies,27(7):2097-2138.
- FURFINE C.2001.Bank portfolio allocation:The impact of capital requirements,regulatory monitoring,and economic conditions[J].Journal of Financial Services Research,20(1):33-56.
- GODLEY W,LAVOIE M.2012.Monetary economics:An integrated approach to credit,money,income,production and wealth[M].2nd ed.London:Palgrave Macmillan.
- GOODHART C A E.2017.The determination of the money supply:Flexibility versus control[J].The Manchester School,85(S1):33-56.
- JAKAB Z,KUMHOF M.2015.Banks are not intermediaries of loanable funds—and why this matters[J].Bank of England Working Paper,529:1-57.
- KING M.2016.The end of alchemy:Money,banking,and the future of the global economy[M].New York:W.W.Norton & Company.
- KING M R.2013.The Basel Ⅲ net stable funding ratio and bank net interest margins[J].Journal of Banking & Finance,37(11):4144-4156.
- LI B Y,XIONG W T,CHEN L J,et al.2017.The impact of the liquidity coverage ratio on money creation:A stock-flow based dynamic approach[J].Economic Modelling,67:193-202.
- LI B Y,WANG Y G.2020.Money creation within the macroeconomy:An integrated model of banking[J].International Review of Financial Analysis,71:101547.
- LI B Y.2023.The macroeconomic effects of endogenous credit and money creation under Basel Ⅲ regulations[J].Metroeconomica,74(4):887-907.
- LI B Y.2024.A balance sheet analysis of monetary policy effects on banks[J].Global Finance Journal,61:100973.
- MARTIN A,MCANDREWS J,SKEIE D.2016.Bank lending in times of large bank reserves[J].International Journal of Central Banking,12(4):193-222.
- MCLEAY M,RADIA A,THOMAS R.2014.Money creation in the modern economy[J].Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin,Q1:14-27.
- MINSKY H P.1986.Stabilizing an unstable economy[M].New Haven,CT:Yale University Press.
- POZSAR Z.2014.Shadow banking:The money view[R].Working Papers.DOI:10.2139/ssrn.2476415.
- SCHMALTZ C,POKUTTA S,HEIDORN T,et al.2014.How to make regulators and shareholders happy under Basel Ⅲ[J].Journal of Banking & Finance,46:311-325.
- STIGLITZ J,GREENWALD B.2003.Towards a new paradigm in monetary economics[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
- WEI X,GONG Y X,WU H M.2017.The impacts of Net Stable Funding Ratio requirement on banks' choices of debt maturity[J].Journal of Banking & Finance,82:229-243.
- WERNER R A.2014a.Can banks individually create money out of nothing?—The theories and the empirical evidence[J].International Review of Financial Analysis,36:1-19.
- WERNER R A.2014b.How do banks create money,and why can other firms not do the same?An explanation for the coexistence of lending and deposit-taking[J].International Review of Financial Analysis,36:71-77.
- WERNER R A.2016.A lost century in economics:Three theories of banking and the conclusive evidence[J].International Review of Financial Analysis,46:361-379.
- XING X Y,WANG M S,WANG Y G,et al.2020.Credit creation under multiple banking regulations:The impact of balance sheet diversity on money supply[J].Economic Modelling,91:720-735.
- XIONG W T,LI B Y,WANG Y G,et al.2020.The versatility of money multiplier under Basel Ⅲ regulations[J].Finance Research Letters,32:101167.
- (1)现实中,投资资本金的回报包含资本利得和股息两部分,但是只有股息属于资金流出。所以准确来说,这里回报率iE仅指股息部分的回报。
- (2)极端情况下,负债的可用稳定资金系数等于1。本文框架中,如果考虑这类负债,可将其视为资本金。