LIU Taoxiong;LIU Zhuohao;LI Bangxi;

• 1:School of Social Sciences
• 2: Tsinghua University

Abstract：

We establish a basic framework for incorporating technological revolution into the endogenous growth model. With two types of technological progress, incremental progress and technological revolution, the equilibrium shows a Cyclic Growth Path(CGP) with both long-term endogenous growth and cyclical fluctuations. The market equilibrium leads to over-consumption, insufficient investment, and lack of “rush-effect” in comparison to the optimal growth path, which results in the latter occurrence of technological revolution. These findings have important policy implications, meaning that to promote technological revolutions, relying solely on the market is insufficient and that this problem needs to be corrected through appropriate policies.

Key Words： new quality productive forces;technological revolution;phased endogenous growth;market failure

Abstract:

Keywords:

Foundation:

Authors: LIU Taoxiong;LIU Zhuohao;LI Bangxi;

References：

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• (1)《习近平谈治国理政》第五卷,北京:外文出版社,2025年,第191页。 (2)《习近平谈治国理政》第五卷,北京:外文出版社,2025年,第191页。 (3)Helpman(1998)区分了渐进式创新和激进式创新,并将后者的主要形式视为通用目的技术(General Purpose Technologies,GPTs);Mokyr(1990)将技术变化分为微观创新和宏观创新;Freeman andLouca(2001)把它们称为渐进过程和技术革命。 (1)新古典学派在宏观领域形成了所谓的“新共识宏观经济学”和真实经济周期理论,认为技术进步在长期保持一定的增长,但短期无法预测,所以宏观经济政策(货币政策和财政政策)不会影响长期产出水平,政府干预(主要是货币政策)能在短期熨平经济波动。这种观点显然人为割裂了技术进步对经济增长与经济波动的双重作用。 (1)关于技术进步的思想,主要由Romer(1986,1990)和Aghion and Howitt(1992)给出,分别通过技术外溢、中间品拓展和质量创新给出了技术进步的模式。这三个模型在数学上具有一定的相似性,将其中一个作为基础分析清楚后容易推广到其他情况,因此本文采用Romer(1986)模型作为基础以简化分析,这种分析也适用于基于Romer(1990)和Aghion and Howitt(1992)等文献的思想构建的模型。 (1)在预算约束(12)下,无庞氏条件等同于终身消费小于等于终身收入的约束,即■ (1) Hull(2013)用变分法也得到了数学上和下文一致的条件。 (1)对于单个企业来说,资本的边际净产出为■上式由方程(7)和(30)得。在技术革命的起点,K=Kn。 (2)对于每一个可能实现技术革命的路径(资本水平能够积累到Kn+1),这些路径的时间长度都是有限的,因此此时下一次技术革命发生的时间tn+1存在一个上界。 (1)这不代表技术革命一定会发生,因为还有可能前提本身不成立,即可能没有市场均衡。 (1)在世代交叠模型(OLG)中,经济有时会产生过度积累。将世代交叠模型和本文的模型结合起来研究过度积累的技术革命路径能否在市场均衡中实现,可作为未来的一个研究方向。 (2)经济学含义是在技术革命的起点,家庭有动力积累资本。 (1)也可以理解为企业个别资本的边际产出等于社会总资本对当期产出的连续的边际产出,即在周期内市场具有较高的效率时。 (1)进一步分析可知,这里表现出一个有趣的“相变”过程。经济的长期增长率在B足够大时是严格正的,随着B的减小而减小;在B下降到低于某个值B->0后,经济的长期增长率突然变为0。在这中间,有许多长期增长率的值是无法被取到的。 (1)这一收益由技术革命(即角点约束)的影子价格θ给出,并表现为计划者积累资本的一阶条件(36)。 (1)这在量上不同于计划者提前技术革命时的边际收益。 (2)推导见附录A。 (1)特别地,关于相变现象,计划解和市场解不同的是,随着B的变化,市场解的正的长期增长率有一个的正的下限G-,即G≥G->0;而计划解的长期增长率则可以在[0,+∞)之间连续的取到。 (1)这在一定程度上可以解释中等收入陷阱。对于发展中国家来说,技术革命以及其带来的长期增长必然是最优的决策。但是,如果没有一个有为政府采取恰当的手段,而是放任市场自行运转,那么市场会选择走向收敛的均衡,表现为新古典增长的范式。拉美国家受新自由主义的影响而选择极度削弱政府,最终就只能放任市场的失灵,使经济陷入停滞状态。只有政府作为主体积极推动技术革命,推动产业升级、结构转型和培育创新能力,最终实现经济增长模式的转变、参与到技术革命的浪潮中,才能从中等收入陷阱中脱离。